Looking Out #8
The mess at the Messe, Amazon and Lyft expand their reach, emperor's new clothes at Canoo, and the sexiness of longevity.
30 September, 2019
A newsletter about the auto industry, mobility, design, and the cultures that surround us. Brought to you by Joe Simpson and Drew Smith of The Automobility Group. If you like what you see, tell your friends!
Auto
IAA Frankfurt: A mess at the Messe
Why it’s interesting: the death of the auto show has been greatly discussed among industry circles. This year’s event in Frankfurt showed that its time is truly up.
I first visited the Frankfurt auto show (known as the IAA) in 2009. Ten years on, I’ve visited my last one. Visitor numbers fell by a third – potential attendees no doubt put off by a significant climate change protest taking place outside.
While Germany’s auto industry association (VDA), which organises the show, is at the end of its contract with Frankfurt’s Messe showground. Rumours are swirling that the fair could move to Berlin in 2021, with a focus on mobility. Ominously, the VDA’s president also stepped down hours after the show started.
In 2019, Frankfurt really was the motorshow dis-embowelled. Missing Peugeot, Citroen, Volvo, Toyota, Nissan, all of the GM and FCA brands – including Ferrari, the event felt light on content, not least because those brands who did attend significantly scaled back their exhibits (BMW used to build a racetrack and take over one entire hall – this year they shared that hall with JLR, Opel, Hyundai and others).
To rub salt into the wounds, the organisers – or show stand bookers – had left most brands in their historic positions, meaning BMW and Mercedes were positioned at opposite ends of the fair, 20 minutes walk from one another. In between lay only tumbleweed, food vans and automotive tat.
There was a bright point. Car brands are electrifying with Gusto, from Porsche’s beautifully resolved €150,000 Taycan to Honda’s characterful, a-segment ‘e’.
But there’s a bigger picture here. While they serve a purpose for people in the industry - to catch up with colleagues and monitor trends, the auto show is no longer fit for public purpose. The new cars and concepts that appear at them don’t introduce radical new ideas or the sense of spectacle they once did. As a show, there’s precious little entertainment. As a cross-shopping experience, there are larger dealer groups which are better and easier to access. So what is the purpose of an auto show? We’re really left with a battle for attention – perhaps represented by the slightly desperate ‘we’re nice now’, try-hard casual of the ID3-dominated Volkswagen stand, versus the ever-larger ‘look at us’ kidney grilles BMW is applying to all its cars.
But in a world of paid-for social media influence, that’s a battle the auto show is currently losing. New ideas are needed. Thanks for the memories, Frankfurt.
| JS
Volkswagen: A mess around the Messe
Why it’s interesting: Every time you think that VW Group might catch a break, they somehow manage to trip over themselves.
A couple of weeks ago, Volkswagen announced sales figures that were well off expectations, in yet another sign that the European market is in some rather hot water.
All would be O.K., someone in Wolfsburg probably hoped, because the long-teased, short-arsed ID3 electric vehicle would launch at the Frankfurt show. At last, something to sock it to Elon!
And then it got weird. Very weird.
First, there was VW CEO Herbert Diess’s interaction with the pseudonymous anti-car activist Tina Velo. For Diess’s part, the most interesting statement I was able to extract was “don’t victimise the car”. It was hardly the most resounding blow in a debate during which Diess often looked like he’d rather be anywhere else.
Then there was Volkswagen’s Greta moment, the point at which they thrust a Thunberg lookalike on stage at their pre-show launch to proclaim to the world how much she loves electric cars.
The ID3 itself has been dealt with in Christopher Butt’s excellent appraisal of the show. But suffice it to say that the awkward little MEB-platformed munter won’t be winning plaudits for much, other than being the first volume electric vehicle from a European manufacturer. To be fair, that is pretty significant, even if Joe and I are wagering that folk would prefer an electric Golf.
As Joe said, VW was trying so hard with the “we’re nice now” hipster dad dancing. It’s clear they really want us to believe that they’ve turned the page.
But then Diess goes and gets indicted. Along with chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch and former CEO Martin Winterkorn, it’s alleged that he withheld knowledge of the diesel cheating from the financial markets, and in doing so distorted Volkswagen’s valuation.
Oh, and regulators have discovered further defeat devices on the 3.0 V6 diesel used in numerous Audi and Porsche products.
On Volkswagen’s press site, an extract of Diess’s interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung leads with “There’s a misperception about the automotive industry.”
Huh.
The thing about perception (mispercieved or otherwise) is that if enough people share it, it becomes a reality. The only thing that will overcome a perception is the creation of another, which is sufficiently compelling and, dare I say it, real - however you chose to frame that term these days. Then, the old perception can be dispensed with.
For me, there are so many questions around governance, corporate culture, and the ongoing support of the German state in this affair. Lest we forget, we first became aware of the criminality in 2015. The rot started way before that.
One thing is clear, however: VW is a mess. For all their talk about a clean, electric future, it’s the company itself that must come clean if it is to have a future at all.
Image: Peter Cambell
| DS
Mobility
Amazon’s Rivian order raises eyebrows
Why it’s interesting: In the last issue of Looking Out we reported on Amazon’s logistics empire challenging FedEx and UPS. Its Rivian order ups the ante
Amazon ordered 100,000 electric delivery trucks from auto start up Rivian, this week.
It follows our report in the last issue of Looking Out, on Amazon’s move to assemble its own delivery fleet, and become a significant player in the logistics/goods transportation world.
As an investor in Rivian, that’s perhaps not altogether surprising, but it does show Amazon doubling down on building its own logistics empire. The 100,000 vehicles will be delivered over the next 10 years, and the order raises some interesting questions. Will Rivian be able to sell the trucks to competitor delivery networks, too? What will Rivian investor Ford, be bringing to this party – or more likely – trying to learn from it?
The most pertinent question concerns money though, or more precisely, how the financing and ownership of these vehicles are structured. Auto industry analyst, Thomas Ridge, sums things up:
One wonders about the metrics of Amazon – an organisation not exactly known for its soft price negotiations, and the cost of what Rivian have previously stated will be a $70,000 truck? The deal implies that either: Rivian’s vehicles will be far cheaper to build than contemporary rivals can manage; Amazon is loosening the purse strings; Rivian has a funding model that keeps the vehicles on their books; or that it might do Rivian more harm than good.
This is one to keep watching.
| JS
Lyft: Building Cities Around People, Not Cars
Why it’s interesting: In a fine example of what a purpose-driven company looks like, Lyft changes how they show transit options, to the detriment of their core ride-hailing business.
Ok, ok. Lyft is not a golden child by any means. They’re could be seen to be aiming at becoming a monopilistc mobility middle-man for one. It also remains to be seen how they weather the recent Californian reclassifcation of their drivers as full-time employees (and therefore subject to things like heath insurance).
But in a move that’s likely to appeal to city and transit authorities, just as much as it is to those that believe that ride-share run amok is not great for citizens, or the environment they live in, Lyft is reweighting their modal suggestion engine.
In plain English, that means that you’re now more likely to be recommended a bike, or a bus, or a walk - if it’s the best mode to take - than you are one of Lyft’s cars.
Look back to the headline of the article - pulled from Lyft’s own homepage - and you’ll see that it’s a change that’s completely in line with their stated purpose.
| DS
Design
Sonos: the canary in the coal mine for transforming how we think about ‘design’?
Why it’s interesting: many designers are conditioned to think about design as how a product looks, or works. But the digital experience is beginning to overtake the importance of physical attributes.
Many designers are still conditioned to think about a physical product or service as the ultimate result of design. This is implicitly taught in most design education. But increasingly design is about a meld of a physical product and the digital support service that is critical to the way it functions. And that should change the way we, as designers, think.
Take Sonos. Its leadership in the home music system market – offering easy expandability, appealing product design and easy control and connection to tens of thousands of songs via your phone – means that many like me, have ditched their old separates music system for Sonos.
But while the company’s physical products continue to improve, producing great sound, and offer ever greater affordability and new aesthetics (Sonos recently launched a collaboration with Ikea) the digital side of things has begun to limit the appeal of Sonos and significant degrade the user experience.
The sonos community is full of ranting complaint threads like this complaining about the way the app has been developed. And as a home user, I share the frustration to the point I’m looking elsewhere. The Sonos app – in its current form – makes selecting what you want to listen to harder than it should be. Integration with Apple (Music) is poor. You can no longer control Sonos from the lock screen of an iPhone (not Sonos’s fault, but it has nonetheless created a significantly worse user experience).
When the app on your phone is the controller and the interface for a physical object is something you never really need to touch, the ‘product’ lives or dies by the quality of the interaction (in this case, an app on your phone).
The dominance of the experience (or lack of it) creates a scenario where the aesthetic or musical fidelity of the physical products become redundant. I don’t care how great the sound is – because it’s so painful to listen to something in the first place. We see this user experience design factor overtaking the importance of the product in many industries (yes I’m looking at you, automotive), but in many areas, UX is still playing second fiddle to aesthetics. Sonos might be the canary in the coal mine: it’s time that all designers started to think about the bigger picture of ‘UX’, and not just think of it as that department which sits downstairs.
| JS
“I really want you, Canoo.”
Why it’s interesting: But does anybody need you? That’s the question rising from the ashes of Farady Future, along with with another thunk-up, hoped-for remiagining of the Microbus.
Forgive me if I’m sounding jaded, but there’s only so much tech-auto industry boosterism I can stomach. And when I saw an orgy of articles singing the praises of yet another Californian automotive startup, I had to close the lid on my laptop and walk away.
All I could think about was the impossibility of the A-pillar blind spot, and the potential for the thing to turn in to an oven under a Californian sun, with that completely glazed top half. It’s not hard to imagine much of the battery capacity being used just to keep the thing habitable.
Before I came back to the keyboard - I needed to write this, you see - I checked myself. My propensity for intemperate snark is well-known.
Yet as The Verge’s article glowed back in to view, I was struck by this quote from Richard Kim, the chief desinger (who is also credited with the BMW i3 and i8):
“This is the first project that I’ve worked on where I think people for sure need this,” … “Previous projects, I’d say, ‘I hope people like it and I hope people want it.’ This is the first time I got to do a project where I’m thinking: ‘Hey, people actually would need this. This would enhance their life.’
“Thinking” people need something and “hoping” that people like it and want it in this day an age is a needlessly risky approach to product development. I sure wouldn’t want to bankroll a billion-dollar business on thinks and hopes.
Here’s the crazy thing. You don’t need to. You don’t need to think needs in to existance.
You can know for sure they exist.
All it takes is some decent design research.
| DS
Culture
Longevity is sexy (again)
Why it’s interesting: Once upon a time, brands like Volvo used to advertise their products’ longevity as a selling point. Apple’s doing it again.
While far from adopting a degrowth mantra, it’s interesting to note that Apple is doubling down on the longevity message that accompanied the launch of the iPhone XS/R series.
What’s even more interesting is their framing of longevity as not just something that allows you to keep your products for longer, but as a contributor to better trade-in value for your device when the time comes to upgrade.
In a similar vein, GiffGaff, a UK-based cellphone network, are advertising the option to buy refurbished products as part of your phone upgrade cycle.
It’s easy to be cynical about such moves - it comes across as very cake-and-eat-it-too. But I can’t help think that a reduction in consumption will best be achieved through small step-changes in consumers’ psychology, rather than taking our toys away completely.
Whether that will be enough to save the planet, however, remains to be seen.
| DS
Thanks to Peter Campbell for inspiring us this past fortnight.
That's it for this issue. We love feedback (positive and negative), and to answer any questions you have. So email Joe or Drew and we’ll get back to you.
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